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Solar irrigation financial impact model

Produced with support from
Shell Foundation UKaid

What this model does: Estimates the annual financial return of solar-powered irrigation systems for smallholder farmers. It compares yield improvements, additional growing seasons, and cost savings against capital and maintenance costs.

How to use it: Select baseline irrigation context to set reference conditions. Adjust plot size and crop value to match your context. Choose a payment method and adjust financing terms. The technology reliability slider accounts for cloudy days, maintenance downtime, and water source limitations.

Technology specifications and costs

Coverage: ha/pump
Yield increase: +%
Coverage: ha/pump
Yield increase: +%
Coverage: ha/system
Yield increase: +%
Operating parameters
Lifespan: All systems 7 years

Payment method and financing

No deposit required. Farmer owns asset after completing all payments.

Full cash payment upfront. Lowest total cost, but requires access to lump sum capital.

Best ROI, but highest access barrier for smallholders.

Financing summary by technology

Baseline irrigation context

This sets the counterfactual — what the farmer achieves without solar irrigation:
Baseline crop yield: kg/ha/season
Growing seasons without solar: /year
Max seasons solar can reach: /year (by technology)
Income gains are calculated as the difference between what the farmer earns with and without solar irrigation. A higher baseline yield means each percentage-point improvement is worth more in absolute terms.

Additional growing season

Baseline: season/year ()

With additional season (adjusted for % reliability):
• 200W Pump: seasons
• 400W Pump: seasons
• 200W + Drip: seasons

Solar irrigation provides reliable water supply during dry seasons, enabling year-round cultivation. Groundwater or surface water availability determines feasibility.

Baseline conditions
Base yield: kg/ha/season
Seasons:/year
Crop value:$/kg
⚠️ Reliability concern: At % reliability, benefits are significantly reduced. Consider investigating water source constraints, solar irradiance, or maintenance capacity before investing.

Financial comparison: ha plot

Baseline agricultural context

Irrigation method:
Base crop yield: kg/ha/season
Growing seasons: /year
Crop value: $/kg
Household income: $/month

Impact with solar irrigation

Yield increase: +-% (at % reliability)
Growing seasons: Up to seasons
Water efficiency: 2.5-5.0x improvement over manual
Environmental: Zero diesel emissions
Evidence strength: High (Kenya RCTs + deployment data)
Model assumptions: Equipment lifespan 7 years for all systems. Financing terms based on agricultural finance market data from East Africa. Technology reliability factor adjusts both yield improvements and additional season benefits. Maintenance costs scale with number of units deployed. Additional growing season benefits depend on water source availability (groundwater or surface water).